Civilisational recovery under endogenous fertility and productivity

Written By Guest User

Author: Duncan McClements


Summary: Extending Alexandrie and Eden 2023, McClements outlines the Barro and Becker 1989 model of endogenous fertility in a closed economy under exogenous productivity growth, and provides estimates of the total population effects under exogenous (but positive) growth and endogenous growth. This paper finds that the time to recovery after a 90%, 99% and 99.9% reduction in population varies little at roughly 550 years, while the intermediate recovery path strongly depends on the initial shock.

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